DON'T BRING A KNIFE TO A GUNFIGHT
Grateful for Covid vaccines as someone vaccinated before infection.
Christmas for the Shanahan's - covid Antigen tests decorating a tree. Our small but real-world report?
10 family members comprising, 2 adolescents and 8 adults, oldest 57.
3 have underlying conditions (2 chronic asthma). 4 adolescents recovered from Covid infections earlier in 2021 before vaccine roll-out.
First man down, a robust 26 year old who had Covid 12 months ago, to the day. He also received 3 vaccines in the past year.
All 10 of us became symptomatic, including temperatures, mild flu, surprisingly mild respiratory symptoms - lot's of coughs, but no-one distressed. Muscular aches and joint pains in older. Quick resolution over a week. Thankfully, between December 22nd and today, almost everyone back to normal ...fingers crossed for no lasting effects.
General Thoughts?
1. Omicrom is ubiquitous and highly infectious..unless you live like a hermit, it will be impossible to avoid contact with the virus.
2. Prior immunity through vaccination and/or previous infection confers protection against severe disease.
3. A tsunami of infection is with us - daily case records under-report those infected with mild/no symptoms. It will get rapidly worse before subsiding, as herd immunity builds.
4. Those unvaccinated, with underlying conditions are needlessly risking their health, consuming health resources unnecessarily and more importantly, increasing the risks to those for whom vaccination is not possible, or does not work.
Concerns for Community and Countries?
The higher a country's vaccine uptake, the better it's healthcare capacity to address the surge underway. The hospital case loads, the societal impact of enforced absenteeism of infected workers in healthcare, education and transport are yet to fully present.
The infection trends we already see will worsen with societal and school reopening after the Holidays. The infection wave will subside rapidly as fewer people without immunity remain to infect. Hospital caseloads could peak at very high levels and remain high for some time after infection in community subsides.
Reflections for economic activity and a return to "normal"?
I believe strongly if we can get through Q1, overcoming any hysteria and misinformation from social media re: case numbers, school openings, etc., accommodating the inevitable and significant disruption to health and public services, the surge will abate.
Economic activity will swiftly return and accelerate.
Populations and individuals will achieve some immunity through vaccination or infection or both. In any event case numbers impacting hospitals will eventually fall, in the absence of a new variant.
For those countries where vaccine access is poor or slow, governments should support and pressure the laggards to implement the greatest and continuous vaccination efforts to date to protect us all.
Happy New Year !!
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